Spreadsheets
Every reference sheet we build lives here, sorted by what it's actually for. These are research tools, not picks — see How We Validate Our Models for how anything on this site earns its way into a claim. Click View to open a free preview in a new tab — full downloads with live formulas are a premium feature.
Weekly Betting Reference
Pull these up before you set your board for the week — spread/total context, not picks.
4th Down Aggression
Which teams actually go for it, filtered by 2025 win rate (single-season, not blended) so an old good year can't rescue a currently bad team. Now includes a 3-year win rate + trend column, so you can see whether a team's aggression is tied to a rising or fading roster. Live formulas throughout.
Betting + Content · Updated 2026-07-07
Weekly Situational Edge Checklist
Every locked and watchlist model, reorganized around 'what to look for' instead of 'how validated is it' — check this weekend's games against these conditions before you set your board.
Betting · Updated 2026-07-09
ATS Cover Rate Calibration
Favorite cover rate by spread size, split home/away, 2012-2025. ATS is a near-perfectly efficient market almost everywhere — except the 10-13.5 point bracket.
Betting · Updated 2026-07-09
Trap Favorite Check (Null Result)
We checked whether the league's biggest weekly upsets (2021-2025) share a common trait — divisional game, rest advantage, anything at all...
Betting + Content · Updated 2026-07-09
Survivor Pool Tools
Built to keep you alive through December, not just this week.
Survivor Pool Planner (Self-Tracking)
Your personal pick tracker for the whole season. Tracks who you've spent, who's left, and pairs it with the safety calibration data. Download it, it's yours to keep all season.
Survivor · Updated 2026-07-09
Survivor Calibration + Historical Upsets
Real straight-up win rate by favorite size (2012-2025), plus every week since 2021 the single biggest favorite in the league lost outright. No pick is safe — this is how much safer each one actually is.
Survivor · Updated 2026-07-08
Fantasy & Props
Start/sit support and prop-market research, separate from betting claims.
2026 Immediate Opportunity Tracker
Players — veterans and rookies — landing in a thin depth chart where the volume is actually available right now, graded A/B/C by how open the job really is. DJ Moore and Miami's wide-open WR room grade out best; some big names (Waddle) land in crowded rooms and grade lower.
Fantasy · Updated 2026-07-09
Blowout Script Cheat Sheet
When your team is a big favorite, this is what history says happens to the box score — RB1 usually starts strong, QB1/WR1 volume typically tapers late. Start/sit logic backed by 14 years of data.
Fantasy · Updated 2026-07-09
2026 Rookie Volume Tracker
Every rookie RB/WR/TE currently sitting at a starter or backup depth slot, pulled straight from the actual depth charts — not draft hype. Live formula flips the starter threshold if you want to widen or narrow the cut.
Fantasy · Updated 2026-07-08
Model Backtesting
The actual validation tooling behind the locked models — for the curious.
Model Registry & Rankings
Every model we've tested, ranked by a live Wilson lower-bound formula (not a static number) — change the confidence level and every rank recalculates. Includes locked models, the validation pipeline's watchlist, prop fingerprints, and the failed theories.
Models · Updated 2026-07-08